DR. HUETTMANN: Petroleum activities have contributed to climate change. Should we continue to explore and develop petroleum and oil and gas?
DR. ZOLOTUKHIN: Well, if you look at the long-term perspective, like it or not, petroleum will remain the main source of energy for mankind. Or at least for 40, 50 years' perspective.
DR. LOVECRAFT: Yeah, until it runs out.
DR. ZOLOTUKHIN: Maybe we'll substitute. But so far the long-term perspective is built on traditional use of resources, in a way. If you want, it is evolutionary, not a revolutionary way of thinking. If a new alternative source of energy is coming tomorrow, then society will go another way. But we cannot project that because we do not see that source yet. In 50 or 40 years' perspective, oil and gas and coal and maybe hydrates by that time will contribute something like to 70 to 80 percent of the whole energy consumption.
DR. LOVECRAFT: What, if any, concerns from a development standpoint do you think climate change presents? In terms of exploring? In water resources, when we talk about the scheduling and timing and sizing of reservoirs for hydropower, we see that over the planning horizon of 50 years, we could be talking about potentially vastly different scenarios for what the optimal sequencing is. What are the concerns from the oil and gas development standpoint?
DR. ZOLOTUKHIN: Usually, the license is granted to the pool of companies on the Norwegian continental shelf for 15, 20, 25 years -- in some cases 30 years on the super-giant fields.
But it does not mean that the state has given the license for that time. They have the power to revert to this case whenever standards are changing, for example, so you can revisit the same thing. According to the previous standards, this was okay, but now you have to do something to adjust yourself. Like emission of CO2 in Norway. The law was issued in the middle of the development of the Norwegian continental shelf. So what does it mean? That means you have to adjust accordingly. Even if you are producing oil already. You have to adjust because it's a law. Or pay a penalty.
DR. LOVECRAFT: But from the standpoint of operations to go in and develop: if a water resource changes, it changes where you can explore, how many seasons it's going to take to explore. And that changes the planning from a business standpoint.
DR. ZOLOTUKHIN: Yes, right.
DR. LOVECRAFT: Are there specific concerns that you're aware of for oil development?
DR. ZOLOTUKHIN: State institutions should have a chance to revisit the existing law and change it for the benefit of people and the nature if and when required.
DR. HALEY: In the same sense that in the regulatory regime, we need flexibility for adaptive management as we gain new information. More and more of the engineering will have to be flexible and adaptive to deal with conditions that we can't fully anticipate.
Detachable production facilities are one example. If a big storm blows in, rather than risking a spill, they simply detach and move away until the storm passes, and reattach. That creates flexibility to adapt to changing environmental conditions. And if the frequency of storms increases, they'll have to detach more frequently, but if the frequency of storms decreases, then they can have more continuous production. It’s an engineering solution that allows more flexibility over the operating license to the field. The implication of climate change for offshore technology/engineering, is that flexibility will have to be engineered in.
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