The Northern test case encompasses both Arctic Alaska, an area of coastal tundra covering the northernmost portion of the state, and Interior Alaska, a region of boreal forest located south of the Arctic. Rural villages of Arctic and Interior Alaska are inhabited mostly by indigenous Iñupiaq and Athabascans, who rely heavily on traditionally subsistence harvests of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine resources. These villages also engage to varying degrees with the cash economy, with some closely tied to oil and mineral extraction income. All of Alaska’s Arctic villages and many Interior ones are inaccessible by road and are dependent on air or river transport for medical and other services and for store-bought food.

Arctic Alaska communities are experiencing the strongest climate signals in the United States, with increases in average surface temperature and fire frequency, thawing permafrost, changes in terrestrial hydrology, reduction of sea ice, increased storm surges, changes in vegetation, shifts in seasonality, and resultant changes in several important ecosystem services. Severe coastal erosion has forced some villages to plan to relocate, while shrinking sea ice raises issues of risk associated with expanded shipping and oil and gas exploration and development. The consequences of hydrological and landscape change have already affected subsistence harvest patterns and heightened safety concerns for traveling for traditional harvests.

The Northern Test Case will address these research questions:

1. How do changes in landscape and in hydrological processes shift the types and abundance of subsistence resources available to northern communities and households?
2. How do these changes in subsistence resources affect harvest areas and timing, including increasing conflicts between users and managers?
3. How do formal and informal institutional arrangements affect the adaptive capacity of northern communities to maintain a subsistence lifestyle?